Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s claim that his state could be “very close” to herd immunity from the COVID-19 coronavirus infection is being met with skepticism by the experts.
“I don’t know what herd immunity is,” Abbott admitted on Fox News on Sunday, but said Texas “looks like it could be very close to herd immunity” based on the number of people vaccinated combined with those who have immunity from getting the infection itself.
Infectious diseases expert Michael Osterholm told the New York Times that Abbott is wrong.
“There is no way on God’s green earth that Texas is anywhere even close to herd immunity,” Osterholm, who is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told the Times.
He pointed to the Upper Midwest as a cautionary tale.
“Look no further than Michigan and Minnesota, which have much higher rates of vaccination than Texas,” he said. “And we’re already seeing widespread transmission.”
Osterholm warned that Texas could see rising infection rates in a matter of weeks as fast-moving variants take hold.
“These variants are game changers,” he said.
The Washington Posted noted that most experts believe herd immunity is possible when 70-90 percent of the population is immune to the virus either from vaccination or from getting the virus itself.
In Texas, however, that number is closer to 50 percent, including 19 percent who are fully vaccinated, the newspaper said.
On CNN, cardiologist Jonathan Reiner also disputed Abbott’s estimate.
“I know what herd immunity looks like,” he said, estimating a 70-80 percent threshold. “We’re not close to that yet… We’re not close to that in Texas, and we’re actually not close to that in the United States yet.”
He said the last 20-30 percent will be the hardest due to the number of people who are hesitant to get vaccinated, including a large number in the military.
“If we don’t vaccinate that last 30 percent or so, we’re still going to have to live with this virus for a very long time,” he said.
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